EFL OPERATIONS
Forecast accuracy
Only completed fixtures are included. A forecast is correct when its displayed home-win, draw or away-win outcome matches the final result.
OUR MODEL
35.9%42 correct from 117 settled forecastsAPI MODEL COMPARISON
38.5%45 correct from 117 comparable forecastsThis is an accuracy score, not a betting return. Confidence bands test whether the model’s stated confidence corresponds with its actual results.
BREAKDOWN
By final result
GroupCorrectSettledAccuracy
Home wins295156.9%
Draws103627.8%
Away wins33010%
BREAKDOWN
By confidence
GroupCorrectSettledAccuracy
Below 50%299630.2%
50–59%122060%
60–69%11100%
70% and over00—
BREAKDOWN
By match date
DateOur modelAPI model
30/08/20262/6 33.3%2/6 33.3%
29/08/202612/36 33.3%20/36 55.6%
22/08/202613/39 33.3%14/39 35.9%
21/08/20261/1 100%1/1 100%
16/08/20260/2 0%1/2 50%
15/08/202614/32 43.8%7/32 21.9%
14/08/20260/1 0%0/1 0%
GLOBAL TOTALS
By league
LeagueOur modelAPI model
Championship11/33 33.3%13/33 39.4%
League One10/34 29.4%12/34 35.3%
League Two16/36 44.4%15/36 41.7%
Premier League5/14 35.7%5/14 35.7%